As yet another week here on FOB Lagman has begun, the temperatures outside are starting to get colder. This morning for the first time, or at least the first time that I noticed, I was able to see my breath as I went outside to take my observations. Although we only saw our low temperature of 39°F (04°C) for a few short moments, many of the people here think that it is possibly the coldest temperature they have ever felt. Luckily the side of the tent that I work on has heat so we stay pretty warm most nights. During the day we have been seeing the temperature rise to around 75°F (24°C) but with a lack of any type of cloud cover, there is nothing to keep the heat in and so we have a tendency to see changes between the highs and lows reach 45° or more one some days.
With the colder temperatures in the morning this causes people to start thinking about winter and what it has in store for those that will be calling this area of Afghanistan their home for at least the next six months. Often times they will ask me when the rainy season will start or when we will see snow, and when we see snow how much of it can we expect. Many times I am not able to give them a straight answer. Most people would say that it is the typical weather person’s way, to avoid giving a direct answer about what we expect the weather to do. Many times this is not true though because we have climatology for many locations around the world that will tell us this information.
In short, climatology is the study of weather throughout history. For some meteorologist this may consist of studying what the weather may have been like during ancient Egypt or how the weather in North Dakota has changed of the last two hundred and fifty years. Most of the time this information is of little importance to us in the military since we don’t generally need to know about the changes over time, but instead we are more interested in the averages so that we can say that, for instance, the average low temperature in Qalat, Afghanistan is 34°F during the month of December and that the lowest temperature recorded is 03°F. This tells us that even on a cold year the coldest that you can expect to see should be around 03°F and therefore you can plan for those temperatures.
The problem that we run into in places like here in Afghanistan is that we don’t have a lot of historical data to go off when collecting this data and therefore it is difficult to give a straight answer when someone asks what the average is for a specific time of year. Most of the data that we have collected for each of these individual areas was only started when we started to build bases throughout these areas and actually had weather people stationed there to ensure that the information was correct. Now you may be saying to yourself, but we have been in Iraq and Afghanistan for over seven years now, that should be enough time to gather weather data to at least get an idea of what it will be like. It would be nice if seven years of data for a single place could give us a good idea of what the weather would be like, but in all reality, it will only give us a broad idea of what to expect.
I say that it is only a broad idea because from year to year the weather will change in any place around the world and New Salem has been a good example of this. Since I have been in the Air Force I hear of how dry it has been and that the crops have not been doing all that great and that there is usually a shortage of hay for many of the farmers. I remember that the summer after I joined the military my dad told me of one day when it reached 113°F, which is one of the hottest days I can ever remember. This year on the other hand has been extremely wet, with many farmers getting more rain this summer than you would have found if they had combined the total precipitation for multiple years. The spring and early summer were also rather cool. At the beginning of this year though if someone would have asked me how much rain we could expect in New Salem during the month of July, I would have taken out the climatology data for Bismarck, since it is the closest reporting station, and would have gathered the average rainfall amount from that. I would not have simply looked at the last seven years and said that during the month of July you could expect minimal rainfall and hot temperatures, since that is what it has been for the last couple of years.
As a general rule, within the weather community, we require fifty years, or more, of weather data before we will say that the climatology for an area is complete and accurate. Within fifty years it allows that one specific area to establish what is considered the “norm” for that area and also what the extremes are. Of course this data is continually updated from year to year to maintain that it remains accurate. This allows us to say that a specific area sees an average of three feet of snow in the month of January, but that during an exceptionally wet winter the area saw as much as twelve feet of snow. The twelve feet isn’t extremely common, but if you want to plan for the worst case scenario, this is what you would want to go with. Seeing as we only have about four years of data for FOB Lagman, there is the possibility that those years may have been dry or wet years and that they may have been abnormally hot or strangely cool, but with the lack of data I cannot give a straightforward answer. In Iraq we were fortunate enough to have more data and therefore were able to point out that during the winter that we had been there, it was abnormally dry and with the drought it was more common to see an increase in enemy activity because the farmers were not able to grow their crops and therefore had to turn to the Taliban for money in order to support their families. This information became valuable in ensuring that we worked with the local farmers to try to relieve some of their troubles.
Weather is not an exact science and many times it can be extremely difficult to obtain one hundred percent accuracy and we must use whatever tools we have available to us. One of these tools is climatology, as long as there is enough data to give an accurate picture. With the lack of information for here at FOB Lagman we can tell you that there is a possibility of snow during December and January, but we can’t tell you how much to expect. One day we will have enough information that we will be able to share this information with the other units that we support.
With that I will sign off for another week. Before I depart I would like to pass along several thank yous for letters and packages that arrived during this last week. It is always fun to come into work and see mail waiting. I would like to thank the parish of St. Martin’s Catholic Church in Center for all of the work that they do in collecting much needed supplies not only for those of us overseas, but also for the work that they do for the Veteran’s home in Fargo. Your love and generosity is greatly appreciated. I also want to thank Sue Bicknell, the staff of the Bismarck State Library, Diane and Terry Mosbrucker, my grandparents Baldwin and Irene Ternes, and both my beautiful bride to be, Megan, and her mom Sue Boele. All of the hygiene products, games, and snacks that you all sent have been put to excellent use and if there was a way for each individual to say thank you, I’m positive that they would.
As our time here is running short, if you are interested in sending a letter or care package, time is also running short before I will no longer be able to receive them. If you send a care package and it arrives after I leave, if you don’t mind someone here opening it, please put “Any Soldier” on the customs form in the appropriate box and I will let the folks here know that they can open them.
I would still love to hear from you. If you would like to send an email you can send it to john.iraq@hotmail.com. If you have any questions or just want to know about something please feel free to ask and I will do my best to answer any questions. If you are interested in sending a letter or care package they can be sent to:
SSgt John B. Ferderer
Task Force Pegasus
HHC 2-82 (SWO) Task Force Corsair
APO AE 09355
Boxes that you send will be shared with as many people here as possible and they really do appreciate your generosity. Next week I will include some additional names of some of the other soldiers here and if you are interested in continuing to send well wishes and supplies you can send it to one of those names.
Have a great week and have a great Air Force Day!
Labels: Afghanistan, New Salem Journal
